Secex data indicate that Brazil shipped 2.45 mln bags of green coffee in July, which marks the first month of the 22/23 business season. A volume shipped higher than expected, given the indications of low physical availability. On the other hand, the ICO data point to worldwide shipments throughout June of 11.1 mln bags, which corresponds to an increase of 1.1% compared to the 10.97 mln bags shipped in the same month of 2021.
The improvement in the flow, albeit slight, brings some relief and helps to alleviate the feeling of a problem in supply due to very low certified stocks on ICE US. But it is still unknown how much the decline in coffee stocks in ICE US is a trading strategy and how much it really represents a tightening global supply. It is worth remembering that world demand is also shorter, given the economic uncertainties and the higher cost of carrying stocks, given the rise in interest rates.