Porto Alegre, February 27, 2024 – On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the March contracts, the most traded, reached three-year lows. The position accumulated a weekly decline of 2.26% until Friday morning, quoted at USD 11.45-3/4 per bushel.
Fundamentals continue to pressure Chicago. The arrival of a large South American crop and the improvement in the weather this week determine sales by funds and speculators. Completing the picture, demand is weak for US soybeans at the moment.
Even lower than initially expected, Brazilian production is projected to be around 150 mln tons. Argentina, without last season’s climate problems, should crop at least 50 mln tons. Paraguay and Uruguay also have good supplies.
In the United States, initial signs point to a larger acreage. Without meteorological problems, the bias is for an increase in US production and stocks in the 2024/25 season.
The picture of exports from the United States continues to lose strength, consolidating the already depreciated scenario in Chicago for soybeans. The latest data showed weekly exports at only 55.9 thousand tons, compared to 353.8 thousand tons the previous week. The accumulated result for the year is practically 20% lower when compared to the same period last season.
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