Porto Alegre, February 13, 2023 – Soybean prices appreciated last week in the domestic market, and the selling pace gained new impetus with good volumes traded. Despite volatility in the exchange rate, last week registered gains for the currency, which, together with the firmness of Chicago, guaranteed good opportunities in the soybean market. However, producers keep their attention mainly to crop development.
A 60-kilogram bag increased from BRL 171.00 to 172.00 in Passo Fundo (RS) last week. In the same period, the prices rose from BRL 169 to 172 in Cascavel (PR). In Rondonópolis (MT), they also increased from BRL 157.00 to 160.00. At the port of Paranaguá (PR), the bag increased from BRL 174.00 to 178.00.
Among the main benchmarks for internal price formation, the behavior of the dollar exerted the greatest influence, registering an increase in almost all sessions except for Friday (10). Fiscal uncertainties took over the market over the week, with the exchange rate movement remaining volatile and without a definite trend.
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended the week with zero losses and approaching the last highs seen in January. For the week, the latest USDA report pointed to the same productivity for US soybeans and a slight increase in stocks by around 400 thousand tons. There was also an already expected cut for the new Argentine crop. On Friday, the market rose sharply again with the March spot contract registering gains of 0.68% for the week, quoted at USD 15.425 a bushel.
In fundamental terms, in the medium and long term, the picture is still negative for soybeans. Despite the weather not being very favorable for productivity in Argentina, the estimated losses are already being priced in, even so, the level of the Brazilian soybean supply remains high and must have a negative effect on prices. The outlook for a record crop in Brazil, above 153 mln tons, according to SAFRAS & Mercado, is already impacting export premiums due to the beginning of the harvest.
Producers keep an eye on the weather effects on crops. The rainy conditions limit the early harvest. There is also concern about the lack of rain in Rio Grande do Sul, as the weather must remain dry and with little or no moisture in the next two weeks in the Southern region. In the states of the Center-North, more intense rains are forecast from February 17.
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