Porto Alegre, November 25th, 2024 – The Brazilian soybean market showed a few deals and falling prices last week. Despite the dollar being above BRL 5.80, domestic prices followed the negative signal of contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), which reached the lowest levels since September.
In Passo Fundo (RS), the 60-kilogram bag fell from BRL 134.00 to BRL 132.00 over the week. In Cascavel (PR), prices fell from BRL 137.00 to BRL 136.00. In Rondonópolis (MT), the physical price fell from BRL 153.00 to BRL 147.00. In the Port of Paranaguá, prices fell from BRL 143.00 to BRL 142.50.
On the CBOT, contracts maturing in January accumulated a 1.50% decline last week. At the close on Friday, the 22nd, the position was quoted at USD 9.83 per bushel. The good crop progress in Brazil, the full crop in the United States, and concerns about the policies of the incoming Trump administration are weighing on prices.
Two points are worrying the market about Donald Trump: the escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, and the withdrawal of incentives for biodiesel production. In both cases, analysts see a falling demand for US soybeans, which would compromise prices. In addition, the trend of confirmation of a record South American production completes the bearish picture for the new season.
Regarding the exchange rate, the recent high in the dollar compared to the real is a result of uncertainties about fiscal control in Brazil and the strengthening of the dollar abroad. With the dollar at BRL 5.80, the impact on soybean prices in Brazil is mitigated. However, at the moment, the price has been more impacted by the fundamental issue more, given the scenario of consolidating ample supply.
Safras News