Porto Alegre, July 12, 2022 – The soybean trading pace of the 2021/22 Brazilian crop picked up strength again in June and early July. With growers a little more active and with an eye on prices, which returned to high levels in mid-June, there was greater interest in negotiations, especially at times when Chicago and the exchange rate helped. In general, the main factor favorable to prices was the dollar, which moved back to levels above BRL 5.00 over the month. This positive movement caught the attention of sellers, encouraging sales.
Regarding the volumes of the new crop (2022/23), the scenario was different. Once again, there was little progress in new crop sales, with growers still showing little interest.
According to a survey carried out by SAFRAS & Mercado, with data collected up to July 8, 74.3% of Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop were sold, up 8.4% from the previous month (65.9%). The current percentage is equivalent to approximately 90.922 mln tons traded, from the estimated production of 122.301 mln tons. In the same period of the previous year, the index was 79.2%, while the five-year average for the period is 77.6%.
For the new Brazilian soybean crop (2022/23), the percentage sold reaches 15.7% of a still hypothetical crop, with an increase of 2.4% compared to the previous month (13.3%). For our calculation, the productive potential of the 2021/22 crop last November was used, before the weather problems that lowered production. The percentage is equivalent to around 22.833 mln tons of a hypothetical crop of 144.712 mln tons. The first estimate by SAFRAS & Mercado for the new Brazilian soybean crop (2022/23) will be released on July 14th. Therefore, in our next sales survey we will already be using our first production estimate for the new crop.
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