The figures from the USDA attaché reinforce the indications of production losses, especially robusta, and a tight supply of coffee in Vietnam in the 22/23 season. Vietnamese production was negatively impacted by the lower use of fertilizers due to the increase in the price of the input. More expensive labor also ended up impacting the margin of growers in Vietnam, who reduced investments in crops and production potential. The change in culture, with the advancement of avocado and passion fruit, also ended up interfering with the main origin of robusta in the world. The area under production decreased by 1.4%, going from 620 to 611.5 thousand hectares.
The decline in area along with lower productivity led coffee production in Vietnam to decline to 29.75 mln bags, falling back below the level of 30 mln bags. The 6% cut compared to the previous season is driven by the decline in robusta production, which must amount to only 28.74 mln bags. Lower production should slightly reduce total exports, projected at 28.80 mln bags, down 0.7%. However, the main effect will be felt in lower stocks, which are likely to fall at the end of the 22/23 business season to only 1.81 mln bags. This tight supply has already been reflected in the prices of robusta.
The more favorable weather, with increased rainfall and progress in investments and renovation of coffee plantations, in reaction to the rise in prices, should support production growth in the 23/24 season, which starts next October and is projected by the USDA attaché at 31.30 mln bags. The scenario of increased production and slowdown in exports favors the replenishment of stocks.