The proximity of the beginning of the harvest led to a revision in the production projections, which also changed the growers’ idea about sales commitments. It is good to remember that this is an atypical year, marked by many uncertainties regarding the crop and abrupt changes in the behavior of growers. The beginning of early sales of Brazil’s 2022 crop was marked by strong sales aggressiveness, which greatly accelerated the trading pace. But from the frost in July 2021, the sales flow has changed drastically, due to the fear of increasing production losses. Sellers backed off. And many even failed to take advantage of the price rally. A more pessimistic production scenario prevailed, which also impacted sell prices. The upward revision in the crop projections of some growers ended up lowering the percentage already committed. And this justifies the correction in the estimate of sales by Safras for Brazil’s 2022 crop, especially in the south of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main producing region.
The SAFRAS survey indicates that, until March 14, revised sales for the 22/23 crop reached 28% of Brazil’s 2022 production potential. And so, they walk in line with the same time last year. Arabica sales reached 33% and, despite starting more actively, they are already working below 35% in the same period in 2021. For conillon, trading hits 21% and remains accelerated compared to the same period last year, when it was around 16% of production. The loss of potential of Brazil’s 2022 arabica crop and soaring prices led local industries, particularly of roasted and ground coffee, to buy conillon ahead of schedule, justifying the better performance in the commercialization of Brazil’s 2022 crop. The industry is now adopting a shorter stance, given the proximity of the crop arrival and the drop in prices.