Porto Alegre, February 1, 2022 –Brazilian soybean exports must total 85.5 mln tons in 2022, down from the 86.1 mln registered in 2021. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand picture, updated by SAFRAS & Mercado on the 26th, indicating a 1% decline from one season to another.
But the most consistent cut was made against the previous expectation, from November, when exports had been projected at 90 mln tons. The reduction is a consequence of the revision in the crop estimate, hampered by the prolonged drought in the Southern region of the country.
SAFRAS indicates the crush at 47.5 mln tons in 2022 and 46.5 mln tons in 2021. The increase is projected at 2%. SAFRAS indicates imports of 1 mln tons in 2022, 16% higher.
For the 2022 season, the total supply of soybeans must reduce by 2%, reaching 139.13 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 136.6 mln tons, repeating the previous year. As a result, ending stocks should fall by 56%, from 5.8 mln to 2.53 mln tons.
SAFRAS projects the production of soymeal at 36.55 mln tons, up 3%. Exports must rise 6% to 18.2 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.3 mln, up 2%. Stocks must rise 3% to 1.96 mln tons.
Soyoil production must increase by 3% to 9.65 mln tons. Brazil must export 1.7 mln tons, with a gain of 3% over the previous year. Domestic consumption must drop 2% to 8 mln tons. Use for biodiesel must drop by 2% to 4.1 mln tons. Stocks are likely to rise 29% to 223 thousand tons.
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