SAFRAS reduces coffee production in Brazil to 66 mln bags in 2024/25

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In previous reports, we had already noted problems with the coffee harvest progress, signaling a possible reduction in the size of Brazil’s 24/25 crop. In fact, the production of canephora (conillon and robusta) was the one that revealed the most losses in comparison to the preliminary idea. Temperatures well above average and the dry period at the end of last year, at a critical moment for crop development, ended up compromising the productivity of coffee plantations, mainly in Espírito Santo. The initial estimate indicated that Brazilian production of canephora would reach 23.32 mln 60-kg bags, but, due to climate problems, production fell short of its potential. Therefore, the crop forecast was adjusted to 20.70 mln bags, which accounts for an 11% decline from the preliminary estimate. The production cut resulted in a lower quantity of conillon and robusta than was reaped last season, with a reduction of 3%, since in the previous cycle (23/24), the country produced 21.40 mln bags of canephora.

The biggest negative highlight was conillon production in Espírito Santo. The initial expectation was that production could repeat the 22/23 season. However, irregular crop development harmed productivity, which lowered both output and bean size. This justifies the cut of more than 2 mln bags between the initial expectation of 17 mln bags and the current idea of ​​14.90 mln bags for conillon coffee in Espírito Santo. Although the harvest is in its final stretch, it is not yet over, and final production is subject to further negative corrections.

While indications of losses in canephora production have been emerging since the beginning of the season, losses in Brazilian arabica production have only become more evident in recent weeks, given the acceleration of the harvest. Although in other regions the adjustments were smaller, in some cases even positive, the south of Minas Gerais, the main producing region in Brazil, felt much more the sequence of days with temperatures well above average. There was no miscarriage, as happens with water stress, which hindered the perception of losses. The first indication was the decrease in bean size, induced by episodes of excess heat. With around 60% of the expected crop already reaped, more and more producers report a result below expectations. The initial expectation for the south of Minas Gerais was 19 mln bags, below the almost 21 mln bags reaped in the exceptional year of 20/21 but still a large crop, repeating the 18/19 crop. However, the current idea is that the South Gerais of Minas will crop only 17.40 mln bags, less than the 17.50 mln bags reaped last year. Another problem reported was the difficulty in making coffee cherries, due to the short period of time for reaping due to faster maturation. Thus, the total coffee output was revised to just over 66 mln bags, remaining around 4 mln bags below the preliminary idea and practically in line with what was reaped last season, estimated at 65.58 mln bags. Arabica production is projected at 45 mln bags, below the 47 mln bags initially projected, thus indicating a slight increase of 3% compared to the last crop. Canephora production is indicated at 20.70 mln bags, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous crop.