SAFRAS indicates the crushing at 46.7 mln tons in 2021 and 46.85 mln tons in 2020, unchanged. SAFRAS indicates imports of 600 thousand tons in 2021, down 27%.
For the 2021 season, the total soybean supply must rise by 3%, going to 140.62 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 136.1 mln tons, up 2% from the previous year. Thus, ending stocks must rise 60%, from 2.83 to 4.52 mln tons.
With regard to by-products, SAFRAS estimates the soymeal production at 35.76 mln tons, 5% lower. Exports must remain stable at 17 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 17.45 mln, down 8%. Stocks must rise 90% to 2.77 mln tons. The reduction in the mandatory blending of biodiesel in diesel is a fundamental factor to explain the likely reduction in crushing and the consequent lower production of soymeal and soyoil this season.
Soyoil production must fall 1% to 9.45 mln tons. Brazil will likely export 1 mln tons, down 10% from the previous year. Domestic consumption must rise from 8.54 to 8.95 mln tons. Biodiesel use must drop 3% to 4.5 mln tons. Stocks must fall 64% to 167 thousand tons.
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