Revisions by attachés from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the 2024/25 coffee crop are beginning to be released, serving as partial versions of the final biannual report, scheduled to be released on December 18. One of the highlights is the cut in the estimate for the current Brazilian crop, which was reduced from 69.90 to 66.4 mln 60-kg bags. This downward revision was already expected, given the USDA’s excessive optimism in its preliminary projection. With the adjustment, the USDA’s estimate is closer to that from SAFRAS & Mercado, which points to the production of 66.04 mln bags.
Moreover, Indonesia’s coffee production was also revised downward by 900 thousand bags, from 10.90 to 10.00 mln bags. The reduction in robusta production, which fell from 9.5 to 8.6 mln bags, is the main reason for this negative adjustment.
Losses in the two major origins, Brazil and Indonesia, are partially offset by the increase in Colombian coffee production, projected by USDA at 12.9 mln 60-kg bags. The internal perception in Colombia had already improved considerably, which indicated an upward correction in the current crop figures. The rise in prices, which stimulated crop investment, together with more favorable weather, with the end of the La Niña phenomenon, resulted in an improvement in production. The USDA data are approaching the estimate of the FNC (National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia), which predicts the output of 13 mln bags for 2024. In general, these figures should have a limited impact on the market, serving only to confirm the scenario of a tighter global coffee supply in the 2024/25 season. The great expectation, however, is toward the figures for the Vietnam crop, which is currently being reaped. The USDA’s projection in June indicated 29 mln bags—27.85 mln of which were robusta—is considered very optimistic and should undergo a negative correction, as occurred with the estimate for the Brazilian crop. Some traders already point to a robusta crop of 24 mln bags.