Porto Alegre, April 2th, 2025 – The domestic soybean market ended the week with excellent trading volumes, especially after the recovery in soybean futures that began on Thursday, March 27, when they registered gains of over 15 points in the shorter maturities. These movements, together with the dollar quoted at around BRL 5.77, maintain good indications for the spot market of soybeans, favoring a positive environment for good trading.
On the other hand, premiums are beginning to decline, with a reduction in bids of 20 to 30 points already observed, adjusting to the improved logistics flow, which has been driven by the increase in exports, as confirmed by scheduled shipments. At this point, it is important to highlight that the price of Brazilian soybeans remains high, with current premiums as high as US premiums, which has raised concerns about the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans in the international market.
With market expectations focused on a possible significant cut in the soybean planting area in the United States, futures prices are beginning to gain support and form a bottom at USD 10.00 per bushel. This, however, implies weaker premiums in the Brazilian market, since the price of soybeans remains high, which is not in line with the record supply in both Brazil and regular supply in Argentina.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected to announce a reduction in the area intended for soybean planting in the country in 2025, compared to the previous year. The USDA’s planting intentions report will be released this Monday, at 1:00 pm (BRT). The forecast is that the indicated area will be smaller than the estimate released in February, during the Department’s Annual Forum.
A survey conducted by Dow Jones suggests that the market is projecting an area of 83.76 mln acres for soybean cultivation in the United States, compared to 87.05 mln acres planted last year. The average projections range between 82.5 and 85.5 mln acres. If the expectation is confirmed, USDA should report a figure lower than the 84 mln acres indicated at the Forum. The area destined for soybeans should be smaller than the area for corn, which is projected at 94.17 mln acres, compared to 90.59 mln last year.
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