The dollar’s behavior, the production of robusta in Vietnam and Indonesia, and the behavior of global demand are important factors that should continue to influence the coffee price curve in 2025. However, the most determining factor, particularly for arabica, is the size of the next Brazilian crop. The historic drought that hit the southeast of the country, hitting particularly the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, drained energy from the plants, which did not allow for the maintenance of the exuberant blossoming seen in October. Furthermore, many growers, already realizing that the crop would not deliver as expected, increased the percentage of “skeletonization” (a type of pruning), which also helped to reduce the potential production for 2025.
This scenario negatively impacts the size of Brazil’s next arabica crop. The fact is that this perception has deteriorated even further in recent weeks. It is true that the situation remains open and a clearer vision will only be possible at the end of January and throughout February next year, with the fruit on the tree during the coffee graining stage. However, as is common after blossoming, some preliminary indications have begun to emerge about Brazil’s next crop. The most optimistic are talking about 40 to 41 mln bags of arabica, while the most pessimistic point to an estimate of nearly 34 to 35 mln bags.
SAFRAS & Mercado preliminary estimate points to the production of 38.35 mln bags of arabica in Brazil in 2025/26. Compared to previous crops, the projection is only above the 2021/22 season, a year that, in addition to the loss of yield after the record crop of 2020/21, was also affected by drought and frost.
In the case of canephora (robusta/conillon), the picture is completely different, and optimism prevails regarding the next crop. Indications point to a production of 22 to 25 mln bags, and SAFRAS & Mercado is working with a preliminary estimate of 24.10 mln bags. Although the canephora harvest starts earlier, the picture is also still quite open, and optimism needs to be confirmed with favorable weather in early 2025. In general terms, SAFRAS indicates a potential total coffee crop in Brazil of 62.45 mln bags in 2025/26, which, even with the increase in canephora production, accounts for a 5% decline from the 2024/25 crop. The main bottleneck is precisely the arabica production, with an estimated decline of 15%. The indication of lower production in 2025 in Brazil, associated with a scenario of low stocks and aggressive buyers, creates instability in the balance between supply and demand, helping to maintain coffee prices supported. The industry remains very active in the market, seeking to build protective stocks due to concerns about future supply.
