Coffee prices in Brazil seem to have reached an internal top and started to move sideways. Abroad, arabica in NY ranges between 180 and 190 cents on ICE US. Robusta coffee in London shows a little more strength but without the same vigor as before. The dollar, another important reference for the formation of the internal price of coffee, has also been moving sideways, oscillating between BRL 4.90 and BRL 5.00. In general terms, we can see a less volatile market and awaiting news from the fundamental side. This behavior of the price curve ends up undermining the positive expectations that sellers had for the off-season. The combination of lower expectations of price highs with the approaching harvest of Brazil’s 2024 season increases the selling interest in the physical market.
The SAFRAS survey showed a commitment on the part of growers of 84% of the 23/24 crop (Jul/Jun) until March 12. This represents a 5% increase over the previous month. Thus, sales remain in line with the same period last year but are still slightly below the 5-year average, which is around 85% of production for this period of the year.
Sales of arabica coffee in Brazil rose to 80% of production, signaling more active growers in the market. Despite this, sales continue to be below the same period last year, when they accounted for 81% of the crop, also below the 5-year average (83%). Highlight, once again, on the good progress in sales in the south of Minas Gerais, especially by cooperatives. The idea is that the cooperatives’ sales flow is between 85% and 88% of their receipts, with growers accelerating sales as the arrival of Brazil’s 2024 crop approaches. Outside the cooperatives, the flow is a little slower, although it also started to move well last month.
Conillon sales continue to speed up, with growers seeking to take advantage of high prices and great external interest before new coffee arrives in the market. Conillon sales reached 91% of production, a percentage higher than the same period last year, when growers had committed 88%, and also than the five-year average (90%).