After a faster start, driven by the cash needs of some growers, the business flow has slowed in recent weeks. Even so, sales resumed consistent growth last month. More capitalized growers have focused on preparing coffee for forward trades, with some even speeding up deliveries—which limits the volume of new business. The decline in physical prices, which exceed BRL 1,000 per bag in some cases, has alarmed growers and contributed to the slow pace of negotiations.
Demand has not been aggressive either, which reinforces the slower pace of business. The market is monitoring the harvest progress and weather conditions in Brazil, but is now paying special attention to short-term developments—and potential long-term consequences—of the tariff crisis with the United States.
According to a monthly survey by SAFRAS & Mercado, as of July 9, 31% of the 2025/26 crop had already been sold, up 9% from the previous month. This pace is slightly lower than that observed in the same period last year (32%) and significantly lower than the five-year average (2020 to 2024), which is 38%. This difference reflects a change in Brazilian grower behavior in recent years. Until the 2021 frost, growers were more aggressive in forward sales.
Arabica coffee sales reached 29% of production, down from 32% in the same period last year and far below the 38% five-year average. The smaller arabica crop in 2025 explains this slower pace of negotiations, which should keep depending on increasing physical availability. It is important to note the supply growth of weaker arabica cups, reflecting moisture during the final plant development cycle and at harvest. This could affect the coffee price parity.
In general, growers are likely to adopt a more cautious stance in the coming months, having overcome the initial impact of the arrival of the new Brazilian crop. Financial volatility and the turbulence caused by Trump’s tariffs, with repercussions on the dollar and also at the New York terminal, could generate trading peaks. However, the domestic physical market tends to reflect sales difficulties more than potential financial opportunities.
In the case of conillon/robusta, the sharp decline in prices and more capitalized growers ended up reducing the flow of deals. Brazilian conillon differentials have firmed, rising to +USD 110/ton (+5 cents) against London. The market is seeking to align with Asian competitors, especially Indonesia, which is also in the middle of the harvest of its main crop. The domestic industry, which had been more aggressive initially, has also slowed down, contributing to holding back negotiations. Prices remain weak in the physical market. In Colatina, Espírito Santo, the price of conillon type 7/8 fell to roughly BRL 1,000 per 60-kg bag.
Conillon/robusta sales rose to 35% of production, reflecting increased physical availability and greater flexibility on the part of sellers. The strong sales flow last month resulted in the percentage sold exceeding that of the same period last year (32%). However, it remains below the five-year average of 38% for the period.
Brazil’s 2024/25 crop ends with a small volume of remainders
Negotiations with the 2024/25 crop are progressing slowly, as is typical at the end of the cycle, when the market focus turns to the new season’s coffee, which is currently being reaped. Furthermore, very little coffee from the previous crop remains available for trading, reflecting strong external demand. A survey (the last of the 2024/25 coffee season) by SAFRAS & Mercado, through July 9, indicates that 98% of the crop has already been sold. This pace is in line with the same period last year and the five-year average. These accelerated sales reinforce the perception of a limited coffee supply and significantly reduced carryover stocks, which helps alleviate the negative pressure typical of the early harvest—especially in the case of arabica.
