Coffee surprisingly accumulated a slight increase over the week, as the expectation was for a price decline after the removal of tariffs by the United States. The relatively sideways movement of the market reflects the lack of direction. It is possible to attribute this movement to the fact that the price adjustment removing the “tariff fat” occurred in advance, with the market pricing in the rumor and consolidating the fact, which reinforces the maxim that “you sell on the rumor and buy on the fact”. It is worth remembering that coffee flirted with the 400-cent mark and is now around 380 cents, considering the March/26 contract in New York.
But the behavior goes beyond that. There is a perception that the tariff change does not significantly alter coffee availability in the very short term. Sales from Brazil to the United States have resumed, but timidly, with a more structured flow only from 2026 onward. Thus, the supply vacuum will likely persist in the coming few weeks.
It is also important to remember that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the cold season has already begun — a factor that reinforces the feeling of tight supply, since stocks are low in the United States. In Europe, the stored volume is also reduced: according to the European Coffee Federation, stocks on October 31 totaled 471 thousand bags, down 9% from the same period last year. This set of factors intensifies the perception of tightness. Added to this are climate concerns, especially the excessive rainfall in Southeast Asia, which hinders the harvest and the flow of shipments from Vietnam.
In this context, the short-term shortage continues to outweigh the expectation of improved flow. The progress of global shipments in the coming months may alleviate this feeling and reduce pressure on the price curve, but the determining factor in the medium and long term will be the size of the next Brazilian crop. Initial impressions are positive, with expectations of more arabica in 2026. However, it will likely take some time before the effect is felt in the market.
