The ICO report maintains the 21/22 global production at 167.17 million bags and consumption at 170.30 million bags. Thus, it projects a deficit in the global supply of 3.13 million bags in the 21/22 season, after a sequence of surpluses. The world shipped 78.01 million bags between Oct/21 and Apr/22, up 0.6% from the same period in the previous season, when shipments totaled 77.52 million bags.
Tight supply is already reflected in the appreciation of the ICO differentials against ICE US, particularly of arabica. In the case of robusta, the signaling is of slight loss. Lower availability of mild coffees, as a result of the declining production in Colombia in recent months, justifies the appreciation of differentials. The average price of Colombian milds is already 74 cents above the second position of arabica on ICE US. Central American coffees also gained value, albeit less than those of Colombian milds. Brazilian naturals, in turn, find support in the harvest delay and low physical availability, being indicated now at +4 cents on average against ICE US.