The coffee harvest in Brazil is taking its first steps in a very timid way. The above-average rainfall at the beginning of 2023 ended up delaying fruit maturation and postponing the start of the harvest. The conillon harvest, which starts earlier, is only 12% complete. Moisture, besides hindering maturation, also interrupted work, particularly in Rondônia.
In the case of arabica, the harvest is around 1%, and only in the Matas de Minas region and western Bahia, the harvest progress is effectively advancing a little more. In Matas de Minas, work is restricted to the lower and warmer regions. The high percentage of green beans ends up limiting the work progress. The majority of new coffee offers are with defects above 40%, while buyers look for better coffees with 20% to 30% defects. It is true that new coffee is starting to appear in southern Minas and Mogiana, but this is a premature harvest, and it is still not possible to quantify this reaped coffee in percentage terms.
In general, SAFRAS believes that the harvest in Brazil reaches only 5% of the total production potential. We do not have a comparison with the same period last year or with the historical average, but the work curve makes it clear that the pace of the harvest is lagging behind the normal for the same period.
The weather is expected to collaborate with the harvest in the coming few weeks. Climate maps indicate low moisture accumulated over the week ending May 17 in most coffee-growing areas of Brazil, according to Rural Clima. Some rain is forecast only for Matas de Minas, Espírito Santo, and eastern Bahia. The rain should remain weak in the week ending of May 24, with the return of moisture in the north of Paraná and part of the state of São Paulo. And the picture should change little until the end of May, which favors the progress of the coffee harvest and drying.