Despite a slower pace last month, the coffee-selling flow in Brazil continues to speed up. The price highs on the international market and the dollar have supported domestic prices, which has increased the interest of sellers, who have found aggressive buyers to replenish stocks. This scenario has resulted in record exports, contributing to the reduction of available supply.
According to a survey by SAFRAS & Mercado, as of January 21, growers traded 85% of the 2024/25 coffee crop in Brazil, up 6% from the previous month. The flow of sales continues to accelerate compared to the same period last year, when growers had traded 74% of the crop. Sales are also ahead of the five-year average (2019-2023), which indicated the trading of 77% of production.
Sales of arabica coffee were more modest but reached 82% of production, far exceeding both the same period last year (69%) and the five-year average, which is around 75%. The growers’ resistance to sales has increased due to the limited supply available and the expectation of new price highs, which should set the pace of business until the arrival of the new crop.
Sales of canephora coffee (conillon/robusta) in Brazil, on the other hand, were faster, driven by greater demand from the domestic industry. The loss of external competitiveness, with Asian robusta being cheaper than the Brazilian product, also explains the greater interest in sales. Thus, sales increased to 91% of the expected production. The pace of negotiations is much faster compared to last year, when sales reached 83% of production, and is above the five-year average, which is around 82%. The smaller crop and limited supply should result in a slower pace of business in the coming months until new canephora coffee arrives on the market from April.
The shortage of coffee in the hands of growers reinforces the off-season nature of negotiations. The appreciation of international prices and the growing domestic demand strengthen this movement. The logic, therefore, is that growers remain cautious, splitting sales and coming to the market only for specific needs or to take advantage of opportunities, given the shorter-term buyers.
As growers hold off on negotiations, only hit 12% have been traded from potential production of 2025 arabica crop
Sales of the new crop continue to be very limited. In addition to concerns about the size of the next Brazilian crop, which has led growers to avoid setting positions in advance, the rise in prices has also caused these negotiations to be postponed. The fact is that coffee remains highly valued on commodities exchanges, and the dollar, despite volatility, remains at high levels. This sellers’ stance is unlikely to change significantly until there is greater clarity regarding the size of the next Brazilian crop, which should occur in the first months of 2025.
SAFRAS’ preliminary forecast is that sales of the 2025/26 crop in Brazil are currently around 12% of the production potential, with arabica negotiations reaching 17% of the next crop. Coffee sales in Brazil are well below the same period last year, when they accounted for around 19% of production, and below the four-year average (2020-2023), which was approximately 21% of the production potential.
For growers, it is important not only to monitor the development of the crop and, especially with better signaling regarding future potential, to be more attentive to opportunities in the trading of future crops, as the market may undergo some significant changes in the second half of 2025, especially with the possibility of an improvement in production projections for 2026. Currently, the expectation is that the price of arabica good cup will be around BRL 2,140 for delivery and payment in September 2025, and BRL 1,970 for September 2026 — both values well above the average for the month of September, which is BRL 1,140 per bag. In the case of canephora, the price curve may signal a behavior change, with the confirmation of a larger crop in Brazil, which begins to be reaped in April, and in view of a more positive outlook for the next season in Vietnam and Indonesia.
Another important point is the very favorable exchange rate for coffee. A survey by Safras Fertilizer team indicated that currently 1.40 and 1.20 bags of coffee are needed to buy one ton of urea and KCl, respectively. In the past, the ratio was 2.60 and 2.40 bags per ton. In the case of MAP, this ratio rises to 2 bags per ton, compared to 3.7 bags in the past. This scenario further reinforces the favorable moment for the coffee industry.
