FOB Brazil coffee differentials plummet on ICE’s rally and Brazil’s 2023 crop

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With a nervous financial market and the proximity of Brazil’s new coffee crop, buyers have been more cautious, which helps to remove liquidity from the market. Progress in the Brazilian new coffee supply is expected to leave the price curve on ICE US flatter and export bases more attractive. This stance has negatively impacted differentials in the FOB Brazil market.

MTGB good cup is bidded at -9 cents and fine cup 17/18 in the spot market between +1 cent FOB Santos for shipment until June. New crop differentials did not change much, with GC MTGB between -18 and -17 cents for shipments in the second half of 2023. With that, the difference between the spot market and the new crop basis fell to a range of -8 to -11 cents. Semi-washed MTGB (cherry) from the new crop is at -10 cents against ICE US.

Rio Minas 17/18 was traded at the flat price of USD 188 FOB Santos for shipment in May. Differentials for Rio Minas 15/16, new crop, between -22 and -25 cents. Conillon is indicated at +4 cents against ICE Europe converted into cents/lb.