Differentials show a timid reaction in the Brazilian FOB market. In the case of arabica, the differentials are significantly weaker, seeking to facilitate the redirection of export flows, previously destined for the United States, to other markets.
Currently, Brazil good cup 3/4 MTGB coffee (screen size 14/15) is quoted at between -28 and -30 cents for faster shipments and between -24 and -25 cents for shipments starting in the first half of 2026, based on the March 2026 position in New York. This is a price difference still well below the usual average traded at the crop arrival, which typically ranges between -21 and -20 cents.
It is important to highlight that Brazil is no longer in the early stages of its crop arrival and that this year’s arabica harvest was smaller due to last year’s drought. This scenario alone would justify firmer differentials — however, so far, the opposite is happening. With the normalization of export flow to the United States, the trend is for a strengthening of Brazilian differentials, reflecting a tighter supply situation this year.
Brazilian conillon differential remains high and uncompetitive with Asian robusta
Brazilian robusta remains quite valued. Robusta 13 up is at +11 cents FOB port, equivalent to +USD 243/ton compared to the London Stock Exchange. Therefore, Brazilian robusta remains uncompetitive against Asian origins.
In Vietnam, heavy rains and flooding, especially in the Central Highlands, have been disrupting the harvest and flow of shipments from the world’s main source of robusta coffee. The scenario is worrying and could result in lost productivity and negative revisions to crop estimates. The latest buy indication pointed to a differential close to -USD 30/ton FOB Ho Chi Minh City, but without sellers — even with expectations of positive differentials for deals to be closed.
In Indonesia, the weather remains favorable for the mid-season harvest over the next four months. The differentials for EK 80 robusta FOB Jakarta are around USD 70/ton below London for shipments in December. In the previous week, it was quoted at less than USD 55/ton. The idea is -USD 50/ton for shipments starting in January, compared to -USD 30/ton the week earlier.
