The optimism in January and February shown by arabica producers, who saw more coffee on the trees than they had imagined after blossoming, was significantly reduced due to the adverse weather in recent weeks. The lack of rain and especially the high temperatures could threaten the end of the grain formation. Thus, the idea of an upward correction in the crop numbers has lost some strength, although it is still possible, perhaps at a lower level than initially imagined. However, the weather continues to be the determining factor, and traders, especially on commodities exchanges, tend to wait to see the results at the beginning of the crop before adjusting their production scenarios. The justification for this more cautious stance is the limited physical availability of coffee and concerns about supply.
In the case of conillon/robusta coffee (canephora), the scenario remains favorable for crops. Although some early lots have already appeared on the market, the effective harvest should only begin in April, with most producers starting in the second half of the month. The weather this year has been quite favorable, and the production growth scenario projected at the end of last year should not only be confirmed but may even bring some positive surprises, especially in Espírito Santo, the main producer of canephora in Brazil.
These different production scenarios should imply different behaviors at the beginning of the crop. Arabica remains more dependent on the weather and vulnerable to low availability, which may influence behavior at the beginning of the crop, relieving the seasonal pressure from the arrival of new coffee in the market. Canephora, on the other hand, should show a faster sales dynamic, both on the seller’s side, especially on the part of small growers, and on the consumer side, with greater demand from the domestic roasting and ground industry.
