The arabica price on the physical market has already surpassed BRL 2,000 per bag for the best quality cups, with the finest surpassing the mark of BRL 2,200. Conillon coffee from Espírito Santo is trading at around BRL 1,750 per bag. Even with such high prices and the market surpassing the sales triggers mentioned by growers—such as the 300-cent line in New York and BRL 2,000 per bag in the physical market—sellers remain on the defensive.
This is the time of year when growers are usually less active in the market due to tax issues. Moreover, they continue to bet on growth, driven by pessimism regarding the production potential of the 2025 crop. On the other hand, exporters are showing interest and closing shorter positions. The domestic industry is also more active, seeking to expand its positions, given the fear of a lack of product due to the strong export flow and low stocks. This context keeps supporting domestic physical prices.
The main determining factor on the market is the size of Brazil’s next crop. In this scenario, growers should assess their production potential individually and keep an eye on trading opportunities, especially in the case of the future crop.