The domestic industry is concerned about the direction conillon has taken at the very crop arrival. Conillon type 7/8 in Colatina, Espírito Santo, which was trying to return to work below the level of BRL 600 a bag, took a sharp turn and reached a recent peak at BRL 680 a bag to later fall to BRL 660 a bag. There are two reasons for this behavior change, one external and the other internal.
Abroad, the tight supply of robusta, with short supply in Vietnam and production problems in Indonesia, end up raising the price of coffee in London. And the upward climb abroad ended up being reflected in the domestic price, even more so after the fall in the differential for exports. Brazilian conillon is rated +2 on FOB Vitória. Although still relatively expensive, it ended up closing the distance from competitors. And that turned on the warning signal of the local industry, which also raised its internal price trying to keep up with the movement abroad.
The fact is that robusta continues to recover value against arabica. From the beginning of the year until now, robusta traded in London has risen nearly 37%, rising from USD 1,759 to the current USD 2,413 a ton. And with that, the NY/London arbitrage dropped to +82 cents. It was already at +150 cents at the beginning of 2022.
Here in Brazil, the harvest delay ended up triggering conillon gains. The fact is that excessive rain in the final phase of the production cycle delayed maturation and interrupted the harvest progress and, by extension, the physical availability of coffee in the market. Some industries had very small stocks, and this delay forced the need for a quick and aggressive return to the market. Producers, on the other hand, given the external high and greater internal demand, adopted an opposite posture and backed off, helping to boost the rise in prices.
