The USDA attaché’s report projected a crop of 11.50 mln bags for Colombia in the 23/24 season (Oct/Feb), which corresponds to a growth of 7.5% compared to the previous cycle. The arrival of El Nino reduces moisture and increases luminosity, which should support the blossoming and guarantee progress in Colombian coffee production. Dry weather and high temperatures, which are expected to come along with El Nino, negatively affect productivity, inhibiting a more significant production performance. The fact is that the alternation from La Nina to El Nino ends up negatively affecting the potential of the coffee crop in Colombia. However, losses with La Nina are normally stronger than those observed in El Nino years, justifying the production improvement projected for the 23/24 season.
The fact is that Colombian production remains far from the 14 mln bags reached in 19/20, not even managing to recover the level of 12 mln bags, which has reduced the space of Colombian coffee on the world stage. The decline in government stimulus resulted in a lower-than-expected renewal of crops, which ended up aging the coffee crop and negatively impacting production potential. The economic crisis in Colombia, with rising inflation and a decline in purchasing power, also helps to limit investments.
The USDA attaché also cut Colombia’s 22/23 coffee crop by 600,000 bags, reducing it to 10.70 mln bags. The downward revision in production is linked to high moisture and a few sunny days during the production cycle. The reduction in the use of fertilizers, due to soaring prices, also explains the decline in productivity and the negative correction in production.
Colombian exports are expected to reach 12 mln bags in the 23/24 season, down 100 thousand bags from the previous projection. Even so, it represents an increase of more than 12% compared to shipments in the 22/23 season. The United States is the main destination for Colombian coffee sales, accounting for more than 44% of the total shipped. The European Union comes next, accounting for 23% of the total.
The better performance of exports associated with growth in domestic consumption should stimulate a new increase in imports, projected at 2.30 mln bags. Colombian external purchases are intended for domestic supply, since the priority for Colombian coffee is the foreign market. And Brazil is the main origin of these imports, accounting for 78% of total acquisitions, with a large share of conillon coffee.
It is worth noting that robusta genetics, which were introduced in Colombia in 2018, have already completed the health quarantine period. Therefore, some micro lots of Colombian robusta should already be tested on a partially commercial basis. The potential robusta cultivation area in Colombia is 80 thousand hectares, projecting the production of 3.2 mln bags. The robusta crop should expand in non-traditional arabica areas and is aimed at replacing coffee imports, especially soluble coffee.
In general terms, the USDA attaché did not bring major changes for 23/24, reinforcing the losses due to La Nina and the shrinking share of Colombian coffee in the world market. Despite the upward revision in stocks, the scenario for 23/24 points to a decline in reserves compared to the previous season.