Last month’s price hike helped unlock some deals, contributing to an improvement in the flow of commercialization. This does not mean, however, that the market is more agitated — negotiations remain slow, a characteristic that should mark the entire business season, especially in the case of arabica, due to lower availability.
The extremes remain far apart, and the volatility of the dollar and stock markets reinforces the cautious stance of buyers and sellers. Buyers await the definition of tariffs and avoid operating in a market considered inflated. Growers, in turn, remain on the defensive, monitoring the evolution of prices, but without haste. The setting of tariffs and the first estimates for the 2026 Brazilian crop could move the market out of the sidelines and, consequently, activate buying and selling interest.
According to the monthly survey by Safras & Mercado, as of November 13, approximately 62% of the 2025/26 crop was sold by Brazilian growers, an increase of 8% compared to the previous month. Demand, although present, has not been aggressive, which limits the flow of purchases. The absence of the United States in the market also weighs on the business pace. Overall, the business pace remains lower than that observed last year (70%) and the five-year average (68%).
Arabica sales reached 61% of production, below the 67% of 2024 and the average of 65% for the last five years. The smaller crop, coupled with the upward volatility of prices, reinforces the strategy of staggered sales among growers. A possible change in the price curve could stimulate business — especially a negative correction, which tends to bring in more sellers — but the trend is for a measured flow throughout the season. Coffee supplies are tight, and there are many uncertainties until the next season. Until then, the arabica supply is short and may generate volatility and new sales opportunities. This sentiment should shape the negotiations of arabica growers. The counterpoint is the high interest rate environment, which offers the possibility of good returns in fixed income.
The commercialization of conillon/robusta has gained a little more momentum, with growers appearing more in the market. The advance of the harvest in Vietnam — which negatively pressures robusta at the London terminal — acted as a trigger for increased selling interest. Still, a substantial amount of coffee remains in growers’ hands, in a more competitive international environment for Brazilian conillon. So far, 64% of the conillon/robusta production from the 2025/26 crop has been sold, an increase of 7 points compared to September, but still below the 76% of last year and the average of 73% for the last five years. Despite the greater interest, growers continue to manage their sales flow carefully. Given the loss of competitiveness of Brazilian conillon compared to Asian robusta, the domestic roasted and ground coffee industry has been the main outlet.
