Porto Alegre, May 26, 2023 – Coffee walks sideways on ICE US as market players digest information from USDA attachés, who brought forward the June biennial report. Partial data indicate a decline in production in Colombia and Indonesia, as well as a negative adjustment in production in Vietnam in the 22/23 season. The projections for the production of robusta coffee reinforce the indication of a tighter supply. And they indicate the consolidation of the relative recovery of the price of robusta against arabica, summarized in the arbitrage between NY/London. The price difference between the two exchanges has already reached +150 cents in favor of arabica and is currently around +70 cents, converging to a parity closer to normality.
Indonesia’s 23/24 (Apr/Mar) coffee production is projected at 9.7 mln bags, down 18% from last season. In Vietnam, production was revised and should be below 30 mln bags in the 22/23 season, which confirms the idea of low availability in the off-season. The next crop of Vietnamese coffee, which begins in October, should grow again and exceed 31 mln bags. The expectation toward the number is also high for Brazil, where arabica production is expected to grow. The difference between Brazil’s private and official numbers is quite significant, which raises interest in the USDA estimate.
Financial volatility and partial USDA data help support prices in the near term. On the radar is the size of the next Brazilian crop, which may confirm the change in the price curve, besides pointing to a full Brazil’s 2023 crop and future supply growth.
the 190-cent line and later the search for the graphic top at 194.60 cents.
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