The domestic physical coffee market is feeling the effects of the declines in international stock markets, finding some relief in the dollar, but mainly reflects the increased availability as the harvest moves on. The differential of good cup 3/4 MTGB (14/16) is between -18 and -20 cents against NY on FOB Santos, weaker than last year, when it was around -15 cents. The decline in prices has even led some growers to speed up the harvest and drying, which has helped increase the supply of new coffee on the market, reinforcing the traditional seasonal pressure with the arrival of the crop.
Many growers have sought to close deals before a more significant advance of the crop, taking advantage of still relatively high prices. Then they manage the rest of the commercial flow more calmly and monitor the development of the cold season in Brazil, which may influence prices in the coming few months.
The price of good quality arabica has accumulated losses of 11% in May and is trading, on early Friday (May 30), at around BRL 2,360 per 60 kg bag in the south of Minas Gerais. Despite the monthly decline, the product still registers a 5% high this year to date and an appreciation of 80% over the same period last year.
Conillon type 7/8, traded in Colatina (ES), is pegged at BRL 1,415 a bag, pressured by the arrival of the crop and the lows in the London futures market. In May alone, conillon accumulated losses of 17%, which leads to a 24% devaluation in the accumulated total of 2025. Even so, compared to the same period last year, the product remains 23% higher.
