The appreciation of conillon ended up reducing the difference in relation to arabica. Hard arabica cup with 600 defects was sold BRL 550 above conillon 7/8 in Colatina. This difference dropped to BRL 300 a bag. It is still quite high, but if this trend continues, this behavior may begin to change, especially in the roasted and ground industry.
While the conillon price curve deflated by IGP-M signals a reaction, hard arabica with 600 defects assumes a slight negative slope. In seasonal terms, the expectation is that, given the advance of Brazil’s 2023 crop, prices will fall again, converging toward the 5-year average.
The conillon harvest is taking shape and, as a result, more supply is likely to start to appear in the market, which may favor a price low. A market trigger is the external appetite, which can serve as an alternative to internal sales. In this struggle between internal and external markets, the dollar price and, especially, the attitude of the roasted and ground industry will be decisive, particularly at the beginning of the commercial cycle.
The supply bottleneck, caused by the harvest delay, made buyers run after sellers. But the scenario of modest growth in domestic consumption and the high cost of keeping stocks, due to high interest rates, tends to reduce the aggressiveness of local demand. And the confirmation of a full crop in Brazil could bring negative pressure on the price curve.