Porto Alegre, December 17, 2020 – Chicken farming copes with a different scenario in relation to competing proteins. Basically, there is less dependence on the Chinese market, but the movement of other proteins had a great weight on the chicken industry, since in a complicated macroeconomic situation chicken assumes the predilection of the average consumer. In a hypothetical scenario of a sharp decline in pork and especially beef, there would be a similar movement with chicken.
Another aspect that generates great concern is the difficulty with corn supply, which must be prevalent during the first half of 2021, as a result of a shrinking summer crop area, besides the irreversible losses in regions of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. This situation tends to force a reduction in productive capacity, with a smaller housing of breeding chicks, which would limit any occasional advance in costs. An alternative is passing on this additional cost to sell prices.
With the resumption of a good selling pace to the Middle East and Japan, Brazil must export around 4.33 million tons in 2021, in 2020 the exported volume tends to reach 4.1 million tons. In other words, there will be an increase of approximately 5.3% in Brazilian chicken exports. Chicken production was estimated at 14.6 million tons, an increase of 3.2% over the production of 2020, which is likely to reach 14.18 million tons.
With this result, domestic supply tends to reach the volume of 10.3 million tons, an increase of approximately 0.8% in comparison with the current year. These numbers reinforce the importance of chicken as a key protein for the average Brazilian’s food security. This aspect must not change in the coming few years, with the buying decision based on increasingly present prices to the final consumer.
Agência SAFRAS Latam
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