Porto Alegre, August 21, 2023 – Brazilian soybean prices gained momentum again last week, seeking support in the three main price formation factors: Chicago, exchange rate, and premiums.
In Chicago, futures contracts gained momentum, reflecting several factors. The USDA’s August report, released last week, was considered bullish by the market, as there were cuts in production and US stocks for the new season (2023/24). This fact provided a positive backdrop for new-crop contracts. Besides, the good US exports announced on Thursday brought support on the demand side. The positive picture is completed by the forecast of a drier climate for the next few days in the US belt, which once again raises some doubts about the final crop development, precisely at a decisive moment for plants. At the same time, increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine brought additional support from corn and wheat.
In terms of exchange rate, the growing risk aversion in the international market in the face of little encouraging economic data from China and other major world economies set a positive tone for the dollar against other currencies.
As for premiums, as supply becomes scarcer in the domestic market due to a strong export pace (which is already a record) and the advance into the last months of the year, premiums continue to show firmness, a picture that tends to go on at least until the end of October.
Brazilian growers should take advantage of the opportunities that the market is bringing, since at this moment the trend for 2024 contracts continues to be more negative given the possibility of recovery in Argentine production and a new record crop in Brazil.
The 60-kilogram bag rose from BRL 147.00 to 152.00 in Passo Fundo (RS); in Cascavel (PR), from BRL 136.00 to 141.00; in Rondonópolis (MT), from BRL 126.00 to 128.00; and in the port of Paranaguá, from BRL 146.00 to 151.00.
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