This year’s arabica productivity must cause severe stress on the plant and negatively affect the 2021 crop in its biennial cycle. Delayed blossoming, together with above-average temperatures and irregular rainfall in the post-blossoming period must substantially reinforce the negative impact on next year’s arabica production. The problems are widespread, but the picture seems more drastic in the south of Minas Gerais, which accounts for 40% of the national arabica production, and signals a potential 35% decline. The preliminary idea is for a 30% decrease in the national arabica production, which would bring production down to around 35.20 million bags. The expected increase in conillon production must help to alleviate the impact of arabica losses. Even so, the potential for domestic production must remain at 57.10 million bags, which corresponds to a total decline of 18%.
This is an insufficient volume to meet demand. Considering an internal consumption of 24 million bags, an exportable surplus of only 33 million bags would remain. A clearer situation only from February or March 2021, when we will be able to validate or not these preliminary impressions. However, it is good to remember that the first months of the year are the period of graining, therefore, more regular and intense rain is needed. Meteorological models indicate below-average rainfall for most of the coffee belt during the first quarter of 2021, which may further aggravate this already worrying picture.
SAFRAS increases Brazil’s 20 crop to 69.50 million bags
The final result of Brazil’s 20/21 arabica crop brought positive surprises. Production was above expectations, which justifies the upward revision in Brazil’s arabica crop, now projected at 50.10 million bags, up 3.9% from the previous estimate, made at the beginning of the season. The arabica gains ended up offsetting the losses with conillon. The Brazilian conillon output was revised to 19.40 million bags, down 2.5% from the April forecast.
In general terms, Brazil’s 20/21 coffee crop grew by 2% from the previous forecast and is currently projected at 69.50 million bags. Compared to the 19/20 season, there was a 16% increase, expanding the scenario of a production record. Highlight on arabica, which rose 21%. Conillon, despite the problems, still sustains a 7% gain. This production record supports the strong external flow and the high volume of coffee still inside of warehouses in important growing regions.