The soybean trading pace for the 2021/22 and 2022/23 Brazilian crops again showed some improvement in December and early January. Despite this, the committed percentage remains below the five-year average for both seasons.
Growers took advantage of some bullish moments in Chicago and the exchange rate to advance a little more with negotiations over the period, mainly involving volumes of the new crop (2022/23). Sales were not better only due to the decline in export premiums, which already reflect the entry of a new record crop as of February.
We expect that the pace of negotiations continues to improve in the coming few weeks, but growers need to keep an eye on prices, which may suffer negative pressure due to the seasonality of the arrival of the new crop.
According to research carried out by SAFRAS & Mercado, with data collected through January 6, 96.0% of Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop were sold, with a new increase of 3.4% over the previous month (92.6%). The current percentage is equivalent to approximately 122.379 mln tons traded, out of an estimated crop of 127.439 mln tons. In the same period of the previous year, the percentage was 95.0%, while the five-year average for the period is 97.3%.
For the new Brazilian soybean crop (2022/23), the percentage sold reaches 28.5% of the estimated production, with an increase of 4.9% over the previous month (23.6%). The current percentage is equivalent to approximately 43.61 mln tons traded, out of a potential crop initially estimated at 153.373 mln tons. In the same period of the previous year, the percentage was 36.5%, while the five-year average for the period is 40.7%.