Porto Alegre, September 22, 2020 – Brazilian soybean stocks must end the year 2020 with a volume below 500 thousand tons. The forecast is part of the September update for the Brazilian supply and demand, released by SAFRAS & Mercado on the 14th.
Brazilian soybean stocks are projected at 461 thousand tons for the end of December, the lowest volume in decades.
With extremely high exports and a very heated domestic consumption, the Brazilian super crop reaped this season will not be able to meet the entire demand, with the need for record soybean imports by Brazilian industries.
For 2021, if the Brazilian crop is full, stocks must grow again, although the forecast is for a still low volume due to the projection of still strong exports and domestic consumption. For the next season, the relationship between the United States and China must still remain an important factor for the market, impacting the projections. News related to the trade war can bring important changes to some numbers, mainly in the estimate for Brazilian exports.
Right now, soybean exports from Brazil are projected at 82.5 million tons for 2021, repeating the volume projected for 2020. In the previous survey, released in early August, the numbers were 83 million tons for 2021 and 81 million for 2020.
SAFRAS indicates the crush at 45.5 million tons in 2021 and 44.5 million tons in 2020, representing an increase of 2% between one season and another.
As for the 2021 season, the total supply of soybeans must rise by 1% to 132.782 million tons. The total demand projected by SAFRAS hits 131.6 million tons, up 1% from the previous year. Thus, final stocks must rise 156%, from 461 thousand to 1.182 million tons.
SAFRAS estimates the soymeal production at 34.98 million tons, up 2%. Exports must rise by 4% to 17.5 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 17.25 million, up 3%. Stocks must rise by 11% to 2.249 million tons.
The production of soyoil must increase by 2% to 9.2 million tons. Brazil must export 800 thousand tons, down 27% from the previous year. Domestic consumption must rise from 8.23 to 8.45 million tons. The use for biodiesel must grow by 6% to 4.5 million tons. Stocks must remain stable at 127 thousand tons.
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