Porto Alegre, March 19, 2024 – Brazilian soybean production in 2023/24 is expected to total 148.601 mln tons, down 5.8% from the previous season, which stood at 157.83 mln tons. The estimate was released by Safras & Mercado on March 15.
On February 9, the date of the previous estimate, the projection was 149.076 mln tons. The reduction from the previous forecast is 0.32%.
Safras indicates an increase of 1.6% in the area, estimated at 45.41 mln hectares. In 2022/23, planting occupied 44.68 mln hectares. The survey shows that the average yield should increase from 3,550 to 3,289 kg/hectare.
Fine adjustments were made to the expected average yield of some states, without major changes. The progress of the harvest, which already exceeds half of the area, begins to reveal the reality of crops in the main states of the country. In general, the crops sown later benefited from greater moisture that reached mainly the center-north of the country from January onward. This behavior led to better conditions for planting development in Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and states in the North and Northeast regions.
As a result, the state of Mato Grosso was revised upward in its expected average yield, albeit slightly. On the negative side, the reduction in production potential in the state of Paraná stands out due to the irregular climate. In the states of the North and Northeast regions, the maintenance of production potential in the face of climate improvement stands out, keeping the possibility of positive surprises in the next updates.
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