Porto Alegre, February 21, 2024 – Brazilian pork exports reached 93.005 thousand tons in January, slowing down compared to December/23, but 6.2% above the 87.578 thousand tons registered in January/23. As for the volume exported, there are no major problems, the issue is the price per ton, which remains under pressure, closing the month average at USD 2,076.45, the lowest since July 2020. In a direct conversion, a ton was at BRL 10,204.24, the lowest level since February 2020. The industries’ margin is under pressure, a factor that impacts the dynamics of live pig negotiations in the interior of the country. It is also worth considering that Brazilian production continues to grow this year, which is also a bad factor for domestic prices. In addition to a large flow to the foreign market, which should occur with prices under pressure, there is a need to advance domestic consumption. At this point, variables such as income level and the evolution of competing animal proteins deserve attention.
China is the main responsible for the decline in ton prices, as it acts timidly in terms of purchases and has bargained in negotiations due to the crisis in its pig farming, suffering from a large supply surplus. The scenario for prices in China should improve in 2025, with a leaner supply, but until then it must remain “tough” in negotiations. In January, Brazil exported 23.109 thousand tons to China, the worst performance since February/22. On the other hand, Brazil has managed to advance sales to other destinations, such as the Philippines, Japan, Singapore, Chile, and others. As mentioned previously, Brazil is gaining ground in the world market and mainly against the European Union due to attractive prices.
The second-largest importer in January was the Philippines, with 10.935 thousand tons, and Chile came in third place, with 10.827 thousand tons.