Porto Alegre, November 28th, 2024 – In October, Brazil exported 127.4 thousand tons of pork (fresh + processed), the second-best result of the year and in history. Compared to the 91.0 thousand tons registered in October/23, this represents a growth of 39.94%. The average price per ton continues to rise, closing the month at USD 2,433.22, the highest level in 2024. In direct conversion, the ton hit BRL 13,683.25, reaching the peak of recent years, as can be seen in the attached graph. Another positive point is the total revenue for the month, which reached USD 310 mln, also the year’s best result.
Shipments from Brazil tend to remain strong over the next few months, considering the competitive price and quality of the Brazilian product. Therefore, domestic availability should remain tight, which helps in setting prices in the interior of the country. It is worth noting that Brazilian production is balanced, contributing to the current situation of Brazilian pig farming. Strong exports require meatpacking plants to actively purchase live pigs, finding an adequate supply at this time. The positive point is that margins and profitability are at good levels, which allows the industry to pay more for live pigs.
The flow of exports will be essential in the first four months of 2025, a period in which domestic demand may decline slightly due to seasonal effects, such as high temperatures and additional household expenses. The strong dollar against the real is a factor that increases the level of attractiveness of pork and other Brazilian commodities in the international market. On the other hand, the strong dollar tends to increase the cost of production, which is worth monitoring closely. Returning to the October data, the Philippines was the highlight, increasing purchases, reaching a significant mark of 36.761 thousand tons, which corresponded to 28.85% of the month’s share. The price paid per ton by the Philippines was USD 2,343, a level close to that registered over the past 4 months.
The second largest importer in the month was China, with 19.092 thousand tons, a 14.99% share. The Chinese paid an average of USD 2,381 per ton. The volume is significant, but far from the peak registered in 2021, when it surpassed the 50 thousand tons per month mark. China is unlikely to increase its pork purchases over the coming few months, considering the current scenario in its market. Although local production is declining, consumption is also falling due to the economic slowdown and lack of consumer confidence. Prices in the Chinese pork chain have recently fallen sharply, after a brief recovery, which indicates that the supply in its market is sufficient to meet demand without major stress.
Japan was the third-largest destination of Brazilian pork in October, reaching 10.135 thousand tons, a 7.96% share. The big positive point is that the Japanese pay more, but are quite demanding in terms of quality, which Brazil is able to meet with excellence. The average price paid by the Japanese was USD 3,478 per ton. In fourth and fifth places, respectively, were Chile, with 9.530 thousand tons, and Hong Kong, with 8.192 thousand tons.
In the accumulated period from January to October/24, Brazilian exports reached 1.077 mln tons, an increase of 8.92% compared to the 988.952 thousand tons registered in the same period last year. Revenue totaled USD 2.442 bln this year, while in the first ten months of 2023 it reached USD 2.332, an increase of 4.68%.
Safras News