The price of arabica coffee in the Brazilian physical market has risen again, reaching values above BRL 2,300 per 60-kg bag for the best quality cups. The finest descriptions can reach BRL 2,500 a bag at the beginning of January. It is interesting to note that the price of arabica coffee remains around BRL 1,280 a bag above the five-year average (2020-2024), when adjusted by inflation, using the IGP-M, it is around BRL 1,036 a bag for the month of January.
It is clear that the market has completely detached itself from the patterns of recent years, sustaining a strong upward trend and still seeking new highs. The combination of a very high dollar, above BRL 6.00, and the price of arabica in NY, above 320 cents per pound, justifies this new jump in prices on the domestic physical market, which also has the additional factor of reduced selling interest.
Conillon/robusta coffee is rising again, despite the negative adjustment in the London curve, finding support in the high dollar and low domestic physical availability. Conillon from Espírito Santo is indicated at BRL 1,925 a bag at the beginning of January, a value significantly higher than that registered at similar times in previous years and also the deflated average of the last 5 years, which is BRL 685 a bag.
The coffee market should remain vulnerable to financial volatility, especially fluctuations in the dollar, with the size of the next Brazilian crop as a fundamental determinant. New figures on Brazil’s crop could impact the price curve, either reinforcing the upward trend or bringing some negative pressure. The good rain forecast for the beginning of this year could benefit coffee graining, reducing the pessimism about production that intensified at the end of 2024. In any case, the low supply available continues to be a supporting factor, bringing firmness to prices. Therefore, sellers, at first, should proceed without haste.
However, it is important to keep an eye on opportunities to sell future crops, as the market may undergo more significant changes in the second half of 2025 due to the possibility of an improvement in production projections for 2026. The idea for good cup arabica is around BRL 2,120 for delivery and payment in September 2025 and BRL 1,950 for September 2026, both well above the average level for the month of September, which is BRL 1,140 a bag. In the case of canephora, the price curve may speed up a behavior change, with the confirmation of a larger crop in Brazil, which begins to be reaped in April, and in view of more positive signs for the next crop in Vietnam and Indonesia.
