Porto Alegre, August 13th, 2025 – The second crop of corn in Brazil continues to be reaped with high yields, well outside the normal crop pattern for this type of culture. Growers are fulfilling their contracts, storing, and trying to envision a better price for the second half of the year. In 2024, after trading corn below BRL 40, the market rose to BRL 50 to 60 in Mato Grosso, for example. Growers are betting that this could happen again this year and improve results slightly. Seasonally, the possibility of prices improving after the harvest is correct. However, the key is the exports. If this retention compromises exports, prices could decline again from November due to selling pressure to free up space for soybeans arriving in January.
Although the harvest is still in full swing, warehouses are filling up or already keeping corn in the open air, and silo bags are no longer available for sale, regionally there still appears to be some support for corn prices. Growers are closing the harvest in some regions, while in others they are just starting it, fulfilling contracts, selling some additional portion for capitalization, and retaining the remaining volumes. In some cases, EGF loans are being made, at high interest rates, to extend these sales until at least January and February.
This movement reveals that growers will seek better prices until the start of the summer crop, and some will leave corn in silo bags until the first half of 2026. Another important factor is the debt maturity on August 30 and September 30, when growers will need to decide whether to sell soybeans still in warehouses or corn from the second crop to cover debt payments, especially if the new official resources delay reaching growers. The fact is that we still have a large second corn crop and a good sorghum crop to be shipped by January, to free up warehouses for the 2026 season. Rainfall in September suggests a good volume will arrive in this period to meet the minimum soybean planting conditions at this early stage. Early soybean planting implies a stronger harvest between January 15 and February 15, requiring free logistics and free warehouses. The issue is that this logistical need could bring additional pressure on corn sales at the end of the year to free up space. Moreover, early rainfall may leave corn stored outdoors in states such as Goiás, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins. In case of rain, this corn will need to be sold quickly.
Domestic consumers are absorbing the volumes needed to stretch their inventories. However, this year’s high credit costs often make this stretch a deterrent. Purchases are being positioned from the short term until deliveries begin in September. More aggressive ethanol companies, due to their longer seasonal inventory positioning, are supporting prices in some regions of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Maranhão. The domestic market has halted the bearish trend only in regions where the harvest is already ending. São Paulo and Minas Gerais, with much yet to be reaped and sold, may face regional pressures in the short term.
Overall, exports remain a key issue. Even with strong domestic positioning by regional consumers, the fact is that we are dealing with surpluses that cannot be allocated to domestic demand. Exports had a strong July, reaching 3.85 mln tons, according to port data, and 2.43 mln tons according to Secex data. The difference should appear by the end of the business year in the Secex data. August now has 7.5 mln tons scheduled, with 1.2 mln tons already shipped. This appears to be a good start to Brazil’s 2025 export cycle, but it will depend on an average of 6 mln tons/month through January to reach the 42.5 mln-ton target for the year.
Corn planting in Missões, Rio Grande do Sul, is beginning after last week’s cold front. With soil moisture still good, planting is expected to progress under favorable conditions. The forecast for a mild La Niña for the spring/summer season once again raises additional concerns for the local summer crop.
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