Porto Alegre, September 21, 2020 – September has been marked by better liquidation by growers, the final stretch of the second crop, and some stocks held by consumers. On the other hand, exports continue at a good pace and begin to surpass the 20 million tons actually committed. A picture that is following its natural context according to the events of this year. From now on, however, the climate ingredient must participate a little more in this composition of prices and expectations.
The week was a little troubled in terms of price formation: one moment of greater supply and accepting lower prices, another of retention and high prices. So was the picture of the week in the domestic market. Very firm prices in Rio Grande do Sul, for example, with offers at up to BRL 65 in the interior, and another of lower prices, such as in São Paulo, at BRL 54/55 in the interior.
On Friday, however, a surge in the dollar against the real, due to signs that the federal government is having difficulties in rolling over the debt in the financial system, contributed to a new rise in port prices. Prices returned to levels of BRL 60/61, and a new buying movement from exporters was noted. In other words, that volume of supply in some regions, which was guaranteeing some stability to prices this month, ended up shifting to exports. September shipments practically repeat August, with 6.3 mln tons. October has 1.4 mln tons in the shipping queue so far. With these data, Brazil exceeds 20 million tons already committed to exports. To close the target of 34/35 mln tons this year, the country will need to export 3.5/4 mln tons a month until January.
Agência SAFRAS Latam
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