After the 5.18 mln bags (green + processed) shipped in October 2024, exports declined to 3.98 mln bags last January, according to data from the Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé). The volume shipped was slightly below the same period last year, when it slightly exceeded 4 mln bags, but was still above the five-year average for the period, which is 3.49 mln bags.
The decline in the volume shipped by Brazil is seasonally expected in the first half of the year, after a strong concentration of exports in the second half of the year, period of the crop arrival. In addition to the advance of the off-season, another factor that explains this decline in shipments is the lower physical availability of coffee, after record exports in 2024, when the country shipped over 50 mln bags. The expectation is that the flow will continue to decrease, at least until the arrival of the new crop, whose business cycle only begins officially in July.
Shipments for the 2024/25 business season (Jul/Jun) through January amount to 30.14 mln bags, of which 27.5 mln are green beans, accounting for 91% of the total. Out of the total green beans, arabica represents 22.1 mln bags, and canephora 5.4 mln bags, that is, respectively 80% and 20%. The share of conillon + robusta grew last season and has been consolidating in the current one, which signals a change in the sales profile of this coffee, more focused on the foreign market. The window opened by Asian origins stimulated exports, and growers see this as a path of no return to meet the projected future growth of canephora production in the country.
