Brazil shipped 4.4 mln coffee bags last October, which corresponds to an increase of 23% over the same period last year. The data are from Secex. However, even with the excellent performance in October, the shipments accumulated in the first 4 months of the 23/24 business season amounted to 13.98 mln bags, down 3% from the same period last year. The numbers differ from those from Cecafé, which shows an accumulated volume between July and October of 14.34 mln bags, which corresponds to an increase of 16% compared to the same period last year.
In any case, the performance has been lower than expected at the beginning of the season, which should lead to a downward revision in Brazil’s export potential in the 23/24 business cycle. Despite the withdrawn stance of sellers, the justification for this slower pace of shipments is linked to demand, as the global industry seeks to extend its stocks, faced with a more difficult financial scenario, due to high interest rates and higher costs, and weak signs from the economy, especially in Europe. The decline in Brazilian exports should result in an increase in stocks, reinforcing the idea of slack in supply in the current season.
The weaker FOB Brazil differentials indicate that the struggle between buyers and sellers is currently leaning toward the buying side. MTGB good cup is pegged at -20 cents FOB Santos, signaling a weaker selling price. This description was traded at -12 cents last September.