The conillon coffee harvest in Brazil is just beginning. And after the initial delay, due to excessive rain, it must gain intensity in April. The arabica harvest, in spite of some premature work, must only effectively start in May. The proximity of the start of work allows a better assessment of the potential of the Brazilian crop. With that, SAFRAS adjusted its production estimate for Brazil to 66.65 mln bags in the 23/24 season. This is within the range we have been working on between 65.00 and 67.10 mln bags, but closer to the upper band. The favorable climate during this year’s production cycle, with regular and intense rain, helped to restore the water supply and ensure a significant improvement in the productive potential of arabica plantations after 2 years hindered by drought and frost.
Thus, Brazil’s 2023 crop must grow 13% compared to last season, when 58.90 mln bags were reaped. A highlight is the 21% increase in arabica production, which must reach 43.50 mln bags. Despite the expressive progress, the crop must still be well below the 2020 record when the country produced 50.90 mln bags of arabica. Virtually all arabica-producing regions must increase production, except for Matas de Minas and Espírito Santo, where a slight negative adjustment is expected due to the inverted biennial cycle. The most expressive highs are expected for the Cerrado region, severely punished by cold and lack of rain in 2022, and the south of Minas Gerais.
The conillon production, in turn, consolidates recent advances and rises 1%, projected at 23.15 mln bags. Investments in rejuvenating and renovating coffee plantations, especially in Espírito Santo, still reflect. The good financial performance, on account of the high price and decline in the average cost (increase in productivity), has drawn attention to the activity and must guarantee future growth in the Brazilian conillon crop.