Porto Alegre, April 2nd 2026 – With constraints throughout the week, the soybean market maintains a more sideways posture rather than a buying one, but without aggressive moves in the grain. Once again, soybean oil stood out, pulling derivative prices and nearly reaching the level of US$ 0.70 cents per pound. This movement is still influenced by expectations of an increase in mandatory biofuel blending in the United States.
In addition, the conflicts in Iran remain active. Even with announcements from the White House indicating possible talks with Iranian authorities and a potential resolution, which temporarily calmed the oil market, with prices operating below US$ 90 per barrel, such statements were later denied by the Iranian government.
As a result, we once again observe volatility and buying strength in the international oil market, a factor that also helps support soybean oil prices. Currently, the correlation between the two is around 0.70, having previously reached even higher levels, close to 0.94, indicating a strong relationship in terms of price variation.
An important and still little discussed point in the current market is the situation of soybean meal. In theory, it should be cheaper given the current context, yet its prices remain firm on the exchange. The crush spread remains quite elevated, which seems inconsistent with market logic. If demand for soybean oil really grows significantly, as the market projects, a relevant increase in soybean meal supply in the U.S. domestic market would be expected. However, this is not yet reflected in prices.
This behavior may indicate that the increase in mandatory biofuel blending may not occur at the magnitude the market has been pricing in, which would reduce the need for crushing at levels as high as currently projected. Still, expectations remain for strong demand with increased blending.
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