NOAA’s February projections indicate the end of El Nino in the first quarter of 2024 and raise the possibility of the La Nina phenomenon returning in the second half of 2024, going through a brief moment of neutrality. This means that moisture should gradually decrease in coffee areas in Brazil, with the end of summer and the arrival of autumn. The period of neutrality is expected to be short-lived, with La Nina establishing itself between June and August, predominating in the second half of 2024.
The return of La Nina could mean reduced rainfall and colder weather for the South and Southeast regions of Brazil and increased moisture for the North and Northeast of the country. In the case of coffee areas in Brazil, the combination of neutrality with the arrival of La Nina between July and August represents a more typical winter, with less moisture and colder temperatures, particularly compared to last year. Polar masses should occur more frequently, especially in the second half of winter. Later cold weather over September cannot be ruled out. In general terms, the preliminary idea is that La Nina will be weak to moderate due to a very short period of neutrality, in the transition from El Nino to La Nina. NOAA’s next update will be released on March 14, 2024.
A cold season with a few more risks for Brazil’s coffee crops. However, it is worth noting that just the passage of a polar air mass is not enough, it must be intense and the atmospheric conditions must allow for frost formation. This risk is only accurately assessed when closer to the arrival of the polar air mass.