Porto Alegre, 5th December, 2025 – The year 2025 is heading toward a positive close, supported by stable prices throughout the period and controlled pig costs, which have ensured profitability for the sector. One of the main factors behind this performance — and one that will remain important in 2026 — is the advance of exports. SAFRAS & Mercado expects a new record next year, with shipments reaching 1.545 million tons, compared with an estimated 1.472 million tons for the end of 2025, an increase of 4.96%.
The Philippines remain the largest destination for Brazilian pork, driven by domestic production challenges resulting from African swine fever (ASF) and rising local demand. Moreover, Brazil has strengthened its trade relations with strategic markets, and the results are beginning to emerge. Japan is increasing its purchases, initially concentrated in Santa Catarina, but expansion to other regions is expected.
Mexico, which until recently did not import from Brazil, is emerging as a promising market, with the potential to increase volumes if trade tensions arise with the United States, its main supplier. Although geographical proximity favors US pork, any Brazilian advance is positive. There are also negotiations with South Korea, still involving modest volumes but with room for growth, and Vietnam continues to expand its purchases, though limited by ongoing ASF cases. Neighboring countries such as Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay also represent additional opportunities.
As for China, it is expected to keep imports below the levels seen at the beginning of the decade, given comfortable domestic supply and ongoing economic uncertainty, which is weighing on consumer confidence.
Besides strengthening trade relations, Brazilian pork stands out for its competitiveness in both quality and price. The European Union, its main competitor, faces high costs, which limit meaningful production increases and keep prices elevated within the bloc. Another point of concern is ASF, with cases emerging in the western part of the continent; a recent case was confirmed in a wild boar in Spain. The trend is for Brazil and the United States to increase their share of global exports in the coming years, to the detriment of the European Union.
For 2026, Brazilian production is expected to reach 5.702 million tons, compared with an estimated 5.587 million tons in 2025, an increase of 2.07%. This moderate growth helps maintain balance in the domestic market. However, several macroeconomic factors warrant attention: high credit costs in 2025 limited investment, and although interest rates are expected to decline, they will remain elevated, sustaining risks associated with persistent inflation, which may restrain
domestic consumption. As an election year, 2026 is also likely to bring higher public spending, putting pressure on fiscal conditions and potentially generating exchange-rate volatility and additional inflation.
Seasonally, the first quarter typically sees weaker consumption due to the burden of household expenses, which makes price adjustments along the production chain more difficult. From the second half of the year onward, demand tends to improve. The performance of competing proteins also plays a role: higher beef prices favor pork cuts, while elevated inflation and interest rates make chicken a more affordable alternative. In this context, a strong export flow will be essential to sustain the pork sector in 2026.
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