The external outlook for the corn market remains relatively stable. There are few drivers for major volatility, as global supply remains healthy enough to meet projected demand. The key outstanding issue is the actual state of US export sales, since the data went undisclosed throughout October and November. The USDA is now updating this information again, and with two releases per week going forward, the market is beginning to gain a clearer sense of how much of the new US crop has actually been sold.
The USDA’s December report is not expected to bring major surprises for the corn market. Some adjustments to production will likely be made in the final crop report next January. There are few demand-side factors that could radically change the US outlook at this point. Domestic demand is already projected to grow strongly, and the ethanol mandate has not undergone any structural increase so far.
Therefore, the focus now turns to the data that is beginning to be updated — namely, export sales. Last week, the USDA began updating weekly export sales figures twice a week, on Mondays and Thursdays. This schedule will continue until the backlog caused by the federal government shutdown is cleared. By the end of December, all data will likely have been brought up to date.
In last week’s update, US export sales reached 33.5 million tons between September 1 and October 16. This volume is 10 million tons higher than in the same period of the previous marketing year. If this pace continues, annual US sales could reach 81 million tons, compared with the 78 million currently projected by the USDA. This is why the update is so important for corn prices on the CBOT at the moment.
This sales pace will determine whether CBOT prices can break out of this consolidation around USD 4.40 per bushel and attempt higher levels in the first half of 2026. One issue that is already becoming important for next year’s forward curve is US farmers’ planting decisions for the 2026 crop. The planted area in 2025 was exceptionally large and surprised the market, as did yields, in a year marked by very favorable weather conditions.
The first major question is whether farmers will continue to plant such a large area or scale back somewhat, trimming acreage in response to prices and investment needs — especially since urea remains one of the inputs with persistently high costs. The second question is whether corn will lose acreage to soybeans or gain acreage from them. According to the US government, China has committed to purchasing 25 million tons of soybeans in the 2026/27 marketing year — the next US crop. If this commitment actually prompts US soybean growers to expand their soybean area, corn could lose acreage and introduce an element that fuels speculation about 2026/27 ending stocks. Otherwise, that support would shift toward soybeans, and corn could even reach a new record for planted area.
Argentina’s crop is now 50% planted, with generally favorable weather and no major risk factors for the time being. The concern, of course, is the possibility of La Niña emerging — even briefly — this December, which could bring a short “dry spell” to southern Brazil and Argentina. This would imply some reduction in rainfall rather than the full-blown drought seen in recent years. Still, even under neutral conditions, the market will remain focused on rainfall over the next 60 days.
Rainfall in Argentina was above average in the producing regions during November. The corn already in the ground is developing very well, and planting conditions for December remain very favorable, even if precipitation tapers off.
Meanwhile, Argentine exports are limping along as 2025 draws to a close. So far, only 26 million tons have been reported as sold, with shipments totaling 25.3 million tons. This is a modest volume compared with the annual target of 34–35 million tons and reflects significant producer retention in the domestic market.
Brazilian domestic market seeks seasonal corn price increase at the end of the year
A price increase during the year-end transition is perfectly normal. In 2025, the holidays, taking up at least two weeks at the end of December, with logistics running at minimal levels and warehouse flows slowing, and the fact that they fall in the middle of the week, prompt consumers to stock up for the period. Of course, on the other hand, there is interest in taking advantage of the moment to secure better selling prices. This is not a new or structural event. Moreover, it does not represent a weather-driven situation that would trigger a prior price move due to production risk.
On the contrary, summer crops are performing very well, and Rio Grande do Sul should begin harvesting in January. Is there some risk to the 2026 corn second crop in certain production hubs in Brazil’s Center-North? Undoubtedly, but that is something to be assessed from March to June, not at the end of November. As for hard data, December shipments are approaching 4 million tons, basically in line with the schedule for 41 million tons in the marketing year, depending only on January.
The Brazilian corn market is closing November without any major new factors capable of triggering structural changes in domestic prices. However, there are seasonal elements that must be taken into account, such as:
● the critical weather period
● year-end logistical constraints
● the still-consistent pace of exports
In the weather context, the most dangerous factor for the Brazilian domestic market continues to be certain consulting firms and segments of the agricultural media — the same ones that, in 2023 and 2024, led producers to believe in major production losses and a strongly bullish price curve. The attempt to “please” one side of the market by imposing exaggerated risks or projecting production losses based on a specific weather pattern ends up distorting producers’ expectations for prices and generating marketing mistakes. In this environment, we must evaluate the situation as realistically as possible. Indeed, there are factors that could lead to later planting of the 2026 second crop and/or even a shift toward sorghum.
These situations would be limited to southern Mato Grosso, northern Goiás, Minas Gerais, and much of Matopiba. And even within those regions, only part of the area would be affected, as it is unrealistic to assume that 100% of the acreage would shift to sorghum, among other reasons, due to seed availability. Therefore, we should expect that, even if planting is delayed, producers will lower their technology level and rely on favorable weather conditions next fall, planting most of the area to corn. Obviously, a larger share of acreage in these regions will become more weather-sensitive and will face lower average yields. But everything will ultimately depend on the weather between March and June.
November cannot be considered a bad month for rainfall in the country’s producing regions; however, in many areas of Brazil’s Center-North, the rains only arrived in the second half of the month. As a result, many locations began planting soybeans only in the last ten days, in addition to several areas that had to be replanted, including some due to hail losses. The summer crop in northern Goiás is being planted later, almost resembling a second crop, but this does not translate into losses—only a crop that will come in later.
The second point is the internal logistics flow at the turn of the year. The December holidays will fall in the middle of the week, which will certainly limit transport availability and the movement of goods through warehouses. Therefore, from the consumer’s standpoint, it is necessary to secure corn purchases in advance to meet demand during this period, avoiding any supply panic over the holidays and, especially, at the beginning of January. On the other hand, sellers tend to capitalize on this opportunity to push prices higher, and we end up seeing a situation in which prices rise despite large stocks and exports running at a steady, unsurprising pace.
There is also the notion that corn has upside potential going forward, which we fully agree with, especially given the seasonal supply pattern in the first half of the year. However, to see movements comparable to last year, we would need additional drivers — such as a weaker real, weather problems affecting the summer crop over the next sixty days, and exports exceeding expectations in December and January. Based on the weather and exchange-rate conditions we have so far, there is no basis for a supply panic — only the typical, seasonal upward moves seen in the domestic market.
Finally, exports surprised both in November and in the December lineup. Total Brazilian exports have now reached 37.2 million tons through last week. November shipped 5.2 million tons and could still close near 6 million. December has jumped to 4.1 million tons in the lineup, which suggests that January should post a similar volume, as is typically the case relative to December. Therefore, the target remains 41 million tons, with roughly 13 million tons in carryover stocks for 2026.
Carryover stocks follow a different pattern in Brazil. Historically, stocks were held mostly by cooperatives, grain dealers, and producers, and only marginally by consumers. With the expansion of the ethanol industry, however, the stock profile in this segment has shifted toward holding volumes through to the next second crop. We can therefore assume that ethanol plants will be carrying at least 6 to 8 million tons to supply their facilities during the regional off-season, from February to June. This corn is part of the carryover stock but is effectively unavailable for trading or meeting other demands. As a result, the stocks available to provide liquidity to the market may be smaller, perhaps 5 to 6 million tons. From this point on, the arrival of the second crop from June onward, together with favorable weather in April, May, and June, will be key in shaping the domestic price curve during the first half of the year.
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