This year’s more favorable climate should allow for a recovery in coffee production in Brazil in 2026, preliminarily estimated by Safras & Mercado at 71 mln bags, with more arabica and less canephora (conillon/robusta) compared to last year. Historically, if confirmed, this volume would represent a record driven by the advances in conillon/robusta in recent years, since arabica production remains below its potential. Unlike the previous cycle, there was no prolonged period of drought, which favors crop development. However, the delay in rainfall resulted in several blossoming periods and should impact harvest progress.
In arabica, the after-effects of the adverse weather conditions of recent years still limit the productive potential. Thus, the idea of a bumper crop — which had even been considered — was discarded over the year. When discussing a bumper arabica crop, the reference point is the record of 2020, when Brazil reaped more than 50 mln bags. Furthermore, factors such as high temperature variations and periods of drought, especially in the Chapada Diamantina region (Bahia state), are also expected to negatively impact the harvest, reducing the productive potential of crops. The initial estimate points to a 21.8% increase, with Brazilian arabica production reaching 46.70 mln 60-kg bags, a number that represents a significant improvement compared to the 2025 shortfall, but still far from the potential of the record arabica crop of 2020.
In the conillon/robusta region, production is expected to decline in Espírito Santo and Bahia, where older crops are showing signs of stress after the large crop in 2025. Newer crops compensate for some of this loss, but the preliminary estimate indicates a decline of around 10%, with some growers citing a reduction of up to 20%. Higher production in Rondônia — reinforcing the advance observed in 2025 — should alleviate the impact. Thus, the total cut in robusta production should be around 6%, going from 25.90 to 24.30 mln bags in 2026.
There is still much to be defined — grain filling and harvest progress. This is a preliminary indication, which points to more coffee in Brazil in 2026, with the increase concentrated in arabica, as expected and necessary. If confirmed, the country should be able to replenish some of its stocks and alleviate supply. It is worth remembering that Brazil has been producing arabica crops below potential since 2020, and 2026 is not expected to be different — despite indicating a productive improvement. This would mean an additional 8 mln bags of arabica, contributing to a relief in supply after two years of supply shortages and very low stocks.
