Porto Alegre, October 8th, 2025 – The physical soybean market remained relatively subdued over the week, with prices failing to gain significant upward momentum, despite the recoveries observed on the Chicago Board of Trade. Premiums did not follow these positive movements, and bid-ask spreads remained quite wide—especially at a time when growers are focusing on advancing the planting of the new crop in the country. As old-crop soybeans are already widely traded, only higher bids would attract greater sales volume.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, last week was marked by increased volatility, influenced by political and economic factors in the United States. President Donald Trump’s statements about a planned conversation with the Chinese president within four weeks—with soybeans as one of the key topics—brought some short-term momentum to prices, reflecting expectations of a possible breakthrough in trade negotiations.
However, the outlook for U.S. growers remains challenging. Besides the devaluation of futures prices, the local basis remains under pressure, reducing trading margins. Added to this is the fiscal impasse in the United States (shutdown), which has halted the release of official data, such as updated export figures.
Based on the most recent reports—such as quarterly and carryover stocks—the United States has approximately 8.6 mln tons in stocks, which would likely lead USDA to negatively revise its export projections. Therefore, the movements observed on the futures exchange do not yet represent a change in trend, but rather market noise associated with political and trade uncertainties. Only further concrete progress in negotiations between the United States and China will provide a clearer direction for prices. In Brazil, exports remain strong, with lineups indicating over 100 mln tons year-to-date, much of it destined for China. Furthermore, Argentina’s recent buying activity reinforces the loss of market share of the United States.
In terms of sales commitments, the United States remains slightly ahead of the same period last year, which tends to result in larger stockpiles—a factor putting negative pressure on the futures market. The market is also closely monitoring the situation in Brazil, where planting of the new crop is progressing at a good pace, with favorable weather conditions and prospects for increased area and production, estimated at over 180 mln tons. This scenario reinforces expectations of ample global supply and weighs on international prices.
October and November are traditionally crucial months for US exports, but everything indicates that October will be a weak month for U.S. shipments, as Brazil has absorbed much of the Chinese demand. This reinforces the country’s importance as a major global player, solidifying the projection of a record crop in 2025, estimated at 171.8 mln tons. Even so, there are expectations of improved carryover inventories if a trade agreement between China and the United States progresses. Regarding sales, the physical crop (2024/25) has already reached approximately 89.4% sales, equivalent to 153.6 mln tons—a significant volume. In the same period in 2024, the percentage was 92.6%, while the five-year average is around 92.4%.
For the new crop (2025/26), the pace remains slower: only 23% of the expected production has been sold in advance, lower than last year’s 28.2% and the historical average of 31.7%. Even with a projected crop of 180.9 mln tons, Brazilian growers are more cautious, reflecting tight margins, exchange rate volatility, and uncertainty regarding international prices.
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