Porto Alegre, September 25th, 2025 – The unprecedented occurrence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza on commercial farms in Brazil has negatively impacted Brazilian chicken exports. The embargoes, especially those imposed on Brazilian territory, lasted longer than intended, despite Brazil’s extremely assertive efforts to quickly eliminate the problem.
Among the major buyers of Brazilian chicken meat, China’s position is missing. Prior to the outbreak of the disease, the country was the largest importer of Brazilian chicken meat, with monthly purchases of 40,000 to 50,000 tons, accounting for almost 10% of China’s total export volume.
In September, a Chinese mission arrived in Brazil to inspect the Rio Grande do Sul production system. This step is crucial for the resumption of purchases and is quite possibly the final step. Therefore, by the end of the month, China may resume imports of Brazilian chicken.
What is urgently needed is a revision of health protocols so that regionalization becomes a basic premise. This way, the country that most takes biosecurity seriously will not be so harshly penalized in cases of isolated incidents.
Pig farming: USDA attaché in Beijing realeases first 2026 projections for China
In the first half of September, the attaché of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Beijing released a report with the first estimates for the Chinese pig industry in 2026. Brazilian pork exports are no longer dependent on China, but the Asian country remains highly relevant in the global market, given its size in terms of consumption and production, and is therefore worthy of attention. The report’s highlight is the forecast for another year of stagnation in production, consumption, and imports.
According to the attaché, Chinese pork production is forecast to reach 57.15 mln tons in 2026, the same number expected for this year. Several factors explain this figure, beginning with the decline in prices and margins for live pigs and pork during the second half of the year. The attached chart shows the performance of the November live pig futures contract listed in Dalian, priced at ¥12,825 (Chinese yuan renminbi) per ton at the close on September 19th, the lowest point on the chart. The second chart indicates that the profitability of pig farmers in China has been declining in recent months. Over the week, a Chinese news agency reported that the government advised producers to reduce the number of matrices, slaughter, and pig weight to balance prices.
The report also highlights a gradual shift in consumption patterns in the interior of China. Pork remains the main source of protein but is losing ground to chicken, eggs, and dairy and aquatic products. The new Chinese generation is seeking greater dietary diversity, which supports this trend. Logically, pork will continue to be the country’s favorite meat due to its affordable prices, both for structural and cultural reasons.
Consumption in China for 2026 was projected at 58.35 mln tons, compared to the 58.38 mln tons expected for 2025, a decrease of 0.06%. The pace of economic activity is slowing down consumption, creating uncertainty among households. The Chinese government has been adopting expansionary monetary measures, such as reducing the country’s interest rate, but more incisive effects are expected to take time to materialize.
Given stagnant production and consumption expectations, China’s import needs are unlikely to increase, projected at 1.30 mln tons for 2026, the lowest volume since 2015, down 2.26% from the 1.33 mln tons estimated for this year. Therefore, the Chinese tend to bargain over prices in the short and medium term. Tariff tensions bring some uncertainty, but the dynamics of domestic availability already suggest that China will act cautiously on US imports. In any case, if Chinese importers face greater burdens, they may replace purchases with Brazilian pork, for example. Another point is that earlier this month, China imposed initial anti-dumping tariffs of up to 62.4% on pork imports from the European Union, depending on the member country, which could also weigh on the pace of imports.
Besides the changing consumption profile, another structural change underway in China is the advancement of professional production, with higher productivity. The USDA attaché’s report indicated that the industry is advancing investments in matrices, despite the current challenging logistical environment. Thus, the number of swine matrices in China is expected to decline over time, but this will support a herd and production level that meets the country’s needs. China’s matrix herd was projected at 40.20 mln head by early 2026, down from 40.78 mln at the beginning of 2025, down 1.42%. The total herd by the end of 2026 was estimated at 421.50 mln head, down 0.82% from the 425 mln head expected by the end of the current year.
The report brought a challenging scenario for China, with no figures indicating a favorable price outlook. The positive aspect, as previously described, is that Brazilian pork is no longer as dependent on the Chinese market. Brazilian authorities have made progress in negotiations and market openings over the past few years, which has led to greater diversification of destinations and mitigated potential future risks. It is also worth noting that Brazilian pork also has extremely high quality and competitive prices, which should help expand export volumes over the decade.
Safras News
